Commercial rooftops are about to change. A lot.
Between climate change, new city rules, tenant demands, and rising real estate prices, the rooftop of 2036 will look nothing like the rooftop of 2016.
Some changes are already happening. Others are just starting. All of them will shape how architects design, how developers invest, and how owners value their buildings.
After 40 years in the industry, here are the 5 big shifts we see coming.
Prediction #1
Empty Rooftops Will Become the Hottest Real Estate in the City
By 2036, a commercial rooftop will be worth more per square foot than any other part of the building. Cities keep getting denser. Ground space keeps running out. That leaves only one direction to grow, up.
Owners who ignore their rooftops will lose tenants to buildings that don’t. Offices, condos, and hotels will all treat the roof like leasable space, not a place to hide the HVAC.
Expect a wave of rooftop retrofits over the next decade. Buildings that upgrade early will charge higher rents.
Prediction #2
Carbon Rules Will Change Which Products Win
Toronto’s new Green Standard Tier 2 kicks in for 2026, and other cities are following. By 2030, tracking a building’s carbon footprint will not be optional. It will be standard.
This means every rooftop product will need to show its carbon math. Where is it made? How long does it last? What is it made of? Products that can answer these questions will get specified. Products that can’t will disappear.
Locally made, long-lasting products will win. Cheap imports with short lifespans will lose. The full lifecycle math changes everything.
Prediction #3
Glued Down Pavers Will Be Gone by 2036
Bonded decks, where pavers are glued directly to the roof, are already falling out of favor. By 2036, they will be a rare choice. Removable pedestal systems will take over.
The reason is simple. Owners want to be able to lift pavers and check the roof underneath. Bonded decks make that impossible without tearing everything up. Insurance companies are starting to require access too. Once that happens, bonded decks are done.
Big architecture firms will change their specs first. Then insurance companies. Then city codes. The shift is already starting.
Prediction #4
Wild Weather Will Force Every Roof Spec to Change
Big storms. Heavy rain. Extreme cold snaps. Wild wind. These are not rare events anymore. They are the new normal, and the roof specs written for last decade will not hold up in the next one.
Expect building codes to require higher wind ratings, better drainage, and stronger structural performance. Systems built for tough North American conditions from the start will pass without changes. Products designed to just barely meet old rules will need to be replaced.
Wind tests will get stricter. Pedestals that passed in 2020 may need upgrades to pass in 2030, especially in coastal and windy areas.
Prediction #5
One Rooftop Will Do Five Jobs at Once
The rooftop of 2036 will not have one purpose. It will have five. Amenity space here. Solar panels there. Plants for stormwater over here. A patio for tenants next to that. All on the same roof.
This forces architects to plan for flexible base systems that can handle very different jobs across one deck. Pedestal systems make this easy. They can level uneven slopes, support planters and pavers side by side, and leave room for solar arrays.
Look for rooftops that combine green space, solar, and amenity zones. These projects unlock the most rebates and give owners the best returns.
The Bottom Line
Today’s Choices Shape Tomorrow’s Buildings
Every one of these shifts favors buildings that adapt early. Fixing things later always costs more than doing them right the first time. And the window to plan ahead is getting smaller.
For over 40 years, PAVE-EL has been the base of some of the most forward-thinking rooftops in North America, from landmark government buildings to modern amenity terraces. As the industry changes, our team is here to help architects, developers, and owners choose systems built for the next 30 years, not just the next 3.
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